The Trump Trade Express: A Turbulent Global Ride
Buckle up for the Trump Trade Express—a thrilling, chaotic journey through the global economy, where investors, businesses, and nations face sharp turns, steep drops, and relentless uncertainty.
Tweet-Fueled Market Whiplash
Once a steady ride, global trade has become a roller coaster under Trump’s command. In 2025, he slammed Canada and Mexico with 25% tariffs and China with 10% (rising to 20% by March), only to tweak them with exemptions by April. His weapon of choice? Social media. A single post—like the March 6 Mexico exemption—sparks rallies, while threats trigger crashes, like the 550-point Dow plunge on February 3. Markets can’t catch their breath.
China’s Endless Trade Loop
The U.S.-China trade war is the ride’s wildest loop. Tariffs escalate in March, met with China’s retaliation on U.S. agriculture. Trump doubles down with tech restrictions and intellectual property theft accusations, framing it as an economic power struggle. China counters by deepening ties with Asia and Africa, hinting at a lasting global shift. Businesses scramble, markets lurch, and negotiations stall, leaving everyone guessing when, or if, the ride will slow.
North America’s Bumpy Track
Canada, the polite passenger, gets dragged into a steel tariff fight, branded a “security threat” despite bigger U.S. concerns like fentanyl. Tense talks ease some duties by April, but economic ripples linger. Mexico’s ride is wilder—praised for trade one day, hit with immigration-linked tariffs the next. The peso drops 30% since 2024, and industries cling on, bracing for Trump’s next move.
Europe’s Unsteady Rails
Europe’s smooth trade line turns shaky as Trump threatens tariffs on cars and wine, landing steel duties instead. The EU fires back with $28 billion in tariffs on U.S. whiskey, motorcycles, and more by March. Seeking stability, Europe strengthens ties with China and Africa, but Trump’s unpredictable threats keep leaders and markets on edge.
Peace Talks Derailed
Trump’s bid to broker Russia-Ukraine peace stalls by April. Aid cuts to Ukraine don’t move Putin, and the war drags on, rattling global markets with each headline.
South Africa’s Unexpected Detour
South Africa veers off course as Trump targets its trade ties. In March 2025, he threatens tariffs over its citrus exports under AGOA, risking 35,000 jobs, and criticizes its land reform policies. The rand weakens to 18.33 by late March, reflecting market jitters. Closer ties with Iran add tension, potentially inviting U.S. sanctions and straining a key partnership.
Markets Still Reeling
Some sectors, like steel, thrive amid the chaos, but overall instability delays investments and the Middle East tensions and Trump’s lingering influence fuel the turbulence.
Yet seasoned investors know the trick: stay aboard. History backs this—over the past 50 years, the S&P 500 has delivered an average annual return of 10.7%, weathering crises like the 2008 crash (a 37% drop, followed by a 26% rebound in 2009) and the 2020 pandemic dip (34% fall, then 68% gain by 2021). Even with 2025’s whiplash—say, the S&P’s 2.7% tumble on March 10—long-term data shows that markets recover. Those who ignore the drama, holding steady through trade wars and geopolitical shocks, often see gains; a $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 in 1980 grew to over $760,000 by 2024.
For now, the Trump Trade Express barrels on, destination unknown, but patience could still pay off.
Mark Levy
Investment Specialist
